March 29, 2004
Posted by Nick
Brother Britton has a post on Michael Lewis' "Moneyball" chock full of linky goodness.
Of course, not everyone is thrilled about the trend. But so what? While old-fashioned trainers may lament this technification of sport, a new generation of sports theorists, who range from economists publishing in refereed journals to fans of an analytical bent sharing their views via the web, see a beauty in their rigour, the article states. The trend has even given rise to several scientific journals such as the Journal of Sports Economics and the International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport.
Read the whole thing. I'd only stop to point out that while this "technification of sport" (great turn of phrase) is going to upset the old guard, the old-boy network doesn't have as much to lose as it probably fears (provided they learn how to use a laptop). Why? To understand, think of how often in a week you'll read an article about a new study that demonstrates nothing more than the perfectly obvious: "Human pedestrians more likely than birds to be hit by automobiles"; "Water has many health benefits and makes you pee." The point is we "know" a lot of things without having the data to back it up.
This transformation is a "marginal revolution"; this is not to suggest it isn't significant. In many ways, the most significant developments are always those that happen at the margins (a fact lost on most cultural/political elites). I'm as excited by the geek revolution in sports as the next guy (for more see "Money Is the Root of All Good") but a little perspective is in order. The best and most lasting revolutions are usually cumulative in nature. The sabermetrics revolution is that kind. In other words, Bill James is Julian Simon or Ben Graham, not Robespierre.
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March 25, 2004
Posted by Nick
The gang at Football Outsiders has developed a cool new stat, called the Leader Ratio:
Leader ratio is simple: If a player leads the league in a statistic (we'll use rushing yards for the purposes of this article), you divide his total yards by the total yards of the player who came in second. In 1958, when Jim Brown led the league with 1,527 yards, the second-best rusher was Alan Ameche with 791 yards. So that gives Brown a leader ratio of 1.93, which happens to be the best in the history of pro football.
I love stuff like this. There are limitations to this kind of statistic (is a back playing for a run-oriented offense? does he play with a great QB who spreads defenses? etc.) but as these things go this is pretty useful in determining how a back should rank against the rest of the league in a given year.
Switching to baseball for a sec, it's stats like this that lead me to conclude that Babe Ruth was far and away the greatest baseball player of all time, and no argument can be made that he wasn't. There are some years in Ruth's career when he hit more homeruns than any other TEAM!! Stats like that go a long way to helping demonstrate player greatness over time.
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