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October 14, 2005

Roids and the Homer Binge: Another View

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Posted by Nick

Here's very interesting research from Art DeVany claiming that roids cannot explain the seeming surge in home run hitting. If you still have an open mind about these issues, pls read it (I'm not saying it's conclusive, just that it's worth learning more ab out it (hat tip MR).


I take up the matter of steroids more directly and also such possible influences as "hotter" baseballs, altered ball parks, smaller strike zone and find them all to be lacking. They do not stand up to verifiable tests or statistics. And they shouldn't because no explanation is required. There has been no increase in MLB home run hitting. Three home run hitting geniuses appeared in a brief time span and will soon be gone. Enjoy them and don't look for explanations when none are required. The law of home runs and extreme human accomplishment that I develop tell us that we never know when this kind of genius will appear, only that it will be rare and intermittent.

RTWT. That's an order.

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October 13, 2005

Where This Angel Feared to Tread (and thank God the Yanks and Red Sox Lost)

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Posted by Nick

My friend John points out: Can you imagine what would have happened if game 2 between the Angels and White Sox -- decided as it was thanks to a terrible ump call in the 9th -- happened in Boston or New York with the Stanks and the Dead Sox playing one another? Good grief. All holy hell would have broken out.

I will say this: If the Angels win this series it will be because Mike Scioscia decided after the game not to make a big issue of it. If the Angels went into Anaheim with their skip bitching and moaning about how they were robbed, they would have lost the series. Since Scioscia did the right thing by not making a huge issue of it after the game, the Angels stand a good chance of taking this series.

Some commentators after the game suggested the call proves the need for instant replay. I totally disagree. The game is more interesting because of the human error. Seeing Scioscia handle it was great (I say this as someone who loathes Scioscia -- don't ask me why, ask Frank Robinson). It has made the series far more interesting. Yeah, the Angels got jerked around, but hey, that's baseball.

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September 03, 2005

Tape-Measure Shot?

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Posted by Nick

The Wall Street Journal ($) has a fascinating piece on how baseball does not have a reliable way of measuring how far home runs travel.

Of course, tracking homers isn't a simple process, and it usually involves calculating how far a ball would have gone if it had hit flat ground instead of bouncing off a light pole or hitting the picture window of a restaurant in the stadium's upper deck. And the numbers aren't the least bit relevant to the outcome of a game. Still, the true distance of an epic homer is precisely the sort of barstool topic that fans are intensely curious about.

But at a time when sports such as tennis and golf are using lasers, microchips and computer models to determine the trajectories of shots, baseball is running out of excuses. Not only does the technology exist, but the necessary equipment has already been installed at nearly a dozen ballparks.

Ed Plumacher, president of QuesTec, a company that has fitted cameras in 11 major league stadiums to monitor the performance of umpires, says that with an investment of about $15,000 per stadium in new software, this system could measure home-run distances to within one meter. The only trouble, he says: "I haven't found anybody who wants to pay for it."

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August 28, 2005

Why Is Baseball Ignoring Mike Marshall?

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Posted by Nick

Former pitcher Mike Marshall is claiming he can train pitchers to avoid injury. This Murray Chass piece is fascinating.

At his training center, where the students live for 40 or 48 weeks, he teaches his method of pitching, which employs Newton's three laws of motion.

"There's a better way of producing force without using the traditional pitching motion, which has flaws," he said. "This is an epidemic that needs to be researched. We have to teach them how to pitch so they don't have flaws."

To eliminate flaws, Marshall teaches a different pitching motion from the one pitchers traditionally use.

"I want the ball to go back toward second base, then toward home plate in as straight a line as possible," he said. "The traditional motion has anywhere from 5 to 9 feet of side-to-side movement in ways that put unnecessary stress on the arm and do no good for the quality of pitches and cause injuries."

Marshall's pitching motion also requires a pitcher to use his legs differently and not "reverse rotate" his hips as much as pitchers traditionally have.

It calls for a lot more reporting -- if the benefits of Marshall's training are so obvious, why is he being ignored? -- but if Marshall is on to something, this should get a lot more attention.

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La Russa to James: Stuff It

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Posted by Nick

The Times has a good look at the controversy in baseball over sabermetrics.

Like any good intellectual spat, this one involves high-brow questions and low-brow insults. It also has attracted interest from fields as far from the dugout as medicine, Hollywood and Wall Street, which find themselves grappling with the same question as baseball managers: when information can be gathered more cheaply and quickly than ever before, should people rely less on their hunches and more on numbers? "I've been sat down and told they can give me a better way to do everything," Tony La Russa, manager of the St. Louis Cardinals and the hero of a new book celebrating the hunch, said last week, describing the statistics crowd. "They really are convinced that they can sit there and crunch out a formula that negates my power of observation. "It's been a little irritating, because there's a certain arrogance with that whole group."

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August 08, 2005

Roid Ragers

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Posted by Nick

Andrew Zimbalist with a devastating review of the new Howard Bryant book on 'roids.

In "Juicing the Game: Drugs, Power, and the Fight for the Soul of Major League Baseball," Howard Bryant suggests that Selig and his lieutenants were well aware that these players were taking steroids, but they refused to rain on baseball's parade. Baseball's recovery was too fragile and the excitement was too intoxicating.

That's an outline of the argument in Bryant's 400-page book. The story of steroids and baseball is certainly worth telling, and Bryant has told much of it reasonably well. In the end, though, Bryant tells a meandering, incomplete, distorted and tendentious tale.

One basic problem is Bryant plays fast and loose with his numbers and sources. ...

Bryant ends his book in a messianic tone. Not only does the steroid issue lose all ambiguity, it undoes all the gains baseball has made since 1995. He writes: "The speed with which Selig and his unassailable decade have come completely undone is stunning." Again, Bryant lacks evidence. In 2005, baseball is setting all-time attendance records.

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July 28, 2005

Dick Allen, by the Numbers

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Posted by Nick

Allen Barra makes a strong case, based on stats, that Dick Allen belongs in the Hall of Fame:

Richard Anthony "Dick" (aka "Richie") Allen is the best player eligible for the Hall of Fame.

...Mr. Allen, who played for just 10 full seasons between 1963 and 1977, led his league in home runs twice, RBIs once, on-base percentage twice, slugging three times, and won the 1972 American League MVP award.

...as Steven Goldman of Baseball Prospectus points out: "Allen's numbers were compiled at the most difficult period for hitters in baseball history. If he had played in the '90s, they would be dazzling." In the 1960s and '70s, though, Mr. Allen's stats were dazzling enough.

First baseman Orlando Cepeda, a contemporary of Mr. Allen's who was ushered into the hall in 1999, hit 379 home runs to 351 for Mr. Allen, who played most of his games at first base. But Mr. Cepeda was at bat nearly 1,600 more times than Mr. Allen. Another Hall of Fame first baseman who played during Mr. Allen's era, Harmon Killebrew, had 573 home runs in 22 seasons, but Mr. Allen out hit him .292 to .256, won three slugging titles to Mr. Killebrew's one, and had more doubles and triples than Mr. Killebrew while batting about 1,800 fewer times.

...Baseball historian Craig Wright, in an article for the Society for American Baseball Research, found much evidence to support this. Mr. Allen's Phillies manager, Gene Mauch, told Mr. Wright that "Dick's teammates always liked him" and "If I was managing today...I'd take him in a minute." Chuck Tanner, Mr. Allen's manager on the 1972 White Sox, said: "Dick Allen piloted the team as much as I did. We were co-managers."

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July 26, 2005

'These Are Not So Much Bats as Clubs'

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Posted by Nick

I love this story. Absolutely love it. It demonstrates everything that's wrong or right or both with the incremental changes that technology introduces into a sport like baseball.

Louisville Slugger keeps the specifications on all the models of bats it has made dating back to the early '30s and has reference models of many bats from before that. Informed of this, I asked the company if it would produce several replica bats so that I could bring them to a big-league game and let current players test them during batting practice. A couple of weeks later, a shipment arrived on my doorstep containing exact replicas of bats originally made for Honus Wagner, "Shoeless" Joe Jackson, Ty Cobb and Babe Ruth.

I couldn't have been more excited if the Smithsonian had mailed me the U.S. Constitution. After all, how many batting titles did James Madison win?

There are two main things you notice when you pick up these bats. One, they're big. The Ruth and Shoeless Joe bats are 36 inches long and weigh 38-40 ounces, depending on whose scale you trust. Next, with the exception of the Ruth bat, the handles are much thicker than modern bats. Scott Spiezio measured the Shoeless Joe bat against his own and found that Jackson's handle was almost as thick as his is at the trademark. There are Hickory Farms beef sticks that are thinner. The Cobb and Wagner bats also have almost no knobs.

How the hell did they swing these things without steroids? These are not so much bats as clubs.

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July 06, 2005

I Don't Want No Cubs

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Posted by Nick

The Chicago Cubs scalp their own tickets (and apparently it's legal).

I was recently pointed to the web page of a disgruntled fan (click here) who found out that a ticket re-seller is owned by the same company that owns Wrigley Field, the Tribune Company. And of course, the ticket reseller charges much more than the face value.

Why? Some guesses: you get the extra income without the negative publicity of raising ticket prices. The Tribune Company also gets to hide income in a subsidiary, which might be useful when negotiating with Major League Baseball over revenue sharing issues. Regardless of the economic motivations, disgruntled fans filed a lawsuit, which the Tribune Company eventually won

Isn't it possible to do a better job of pricing so they don't need to do this?

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December 09, 2004

Is It Like 1919?

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Posted by Nick

George Will thinks the steroids scandal is a "stain" on baseball and framed the issue this way:

"Probably sometime late in the 2005 season or early in the next one, Barry Bonds, who already has 703 career home runs, will begin a game with 754, one short of Henry Aaron's record. Would you cross the street to see Bonds hit number 755?"

To which I answer: put down your beer and let's cross the damn street! What numbnutz wouldn't? Hello, George Will, what planet are you on? Even if you loathe Bonds and loathe him even more for cheating -- sentiments I understand even if I don't totally share -- who wouldn't want to be at the game where he hits #755, if just for the spectacle of it? I talked about this at length with my brother last night over several pitchers at a local sports bar and we just don't get what Will is talking about.

Anyway, the most annoying comment of late comes courtesy of my favorite sports writer, Tom Boswell.

"For Bonds, the number 73 will only loom larger. Even as, for the rest of us, it moves toward the horizon of memory and shrinks until it finally takes its place, remote but still distinct, next to that other sad number that never entirely fades: 1919."

That number was the year of the Black Sox scandal. But the comparison is asinine. The Black Sox conspired to lose games on purpose. The juice-heads conspired to take 'roids -- so that they might help their teams win games. This difference is critical.

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Barry Barry Quite Contrary

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Posted by Nick

OK, it's been a while and I apologize for the delay. Things have been hectic.

And look at what's happened in my absence. Maybe the biggest sports and tech story ever -- Bonds, Giambi, 'roids, Bush and McCain -- blows up all over the place. That'll teach me a lesson -- never move again!

So, people are asking me, Transition Game, what do you make of all this? So I'll tell you -- I don't really know. OK, well I do, but my thoughts on this are complicated, so let me go through them.

First of all, I am a baseball romantic -- not in the baseball-is-a-metaphor-for-life way of George Will, but just in the sense that I love the game, love stats, and love comparing athletes and teams over time. Comparing records set and broken is a part of that, so you might expect me to be peeved to no end at Barry Bonds. But I'm not, and here's why.

A very good source of mine at the US Department of Justice alerted me many many months ago that the feds had the dirt on Bonds and other players that they used prohibited substances. At the time, even though I suspected players like Bonds might have been juiced, I was a little taken aback. But over time, as the realization sunk in, I found that I just didn't care that much. In fact, this last baseball season, I was interested in seeing Bonds above all players -- maybe in part because I knew he was or at least had been using banned substances.

Barry has been called a "freak" and other nasty things by critics. But I didn't see him that way. Look at him and watch him play. He's absolutely the most compelling thing at the plate in the game today. And knowing he was taking creams and clears didn't diminish any of that for me.

So what about the "integrity of the game" and all that? Well, the critics have a point. As your parents used to say, rules are rules. These guys were breaking them, etc. Fair point.

But maybe we need to rethink the prohibition on some of the banned substances. See here and here for more on that (but see here for an excellent piece on why taking roids is bad for the game). Matt Welch at Reason has an absolutely must-read article on the Bonds take-down by the feds. If you read nothing else on this subject, read that piece.

I keep coming back the same point I've made before -- the only way to get juice out of the game is for the players to want it out of the game. But if steroids, when properly administered, aren't terribly bad for you, and if fans want better and better performance, where're the incentives pushing players, especially older players who want to stay in top shape?

Lastly, no matter what one thinks of the players using banned substances, the leak of supposedly sealed grand jury testimony is bad. Very very very very bad. And the widespread abuse of our criminal justice system should be a much bigger concern to people than player abuse of their bodies or fan trust.

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August 06, 2004

Geekball Defended

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Posted by Nick

In this fascinating and fact-fileld piece on sabermetrics, Larry Mankhen demonstrates why baseball is still far and away the most interesting sport to write about and debate.

There are some who still refuse to look at the evidence, and they never will. I say nuts to them. They're not going to come around, and we shouldn't care anymore. Let them continue to overvalue heart, chemistry and other intangibles. The truth is on our side, and by focusing on the next generation of fans, the next generation of sportswriters, and the next generation of general managers, the game will be better served, and objective statistical analysis will be given equal footing with subjective scouting.

We do this not because we desire to hold the popular viewpoint, but because we love the game, and we love our teams. We do this because we want our favorite teams to be run intelligently. We do this because it's the right thing to do.

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July 29, 2004

The King of Queens, Rick Peterson

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Posted by Nick

Mets pitching coach Rick Peterson, another former Billy Beane boy, has been doing great things with the Mets pitching staff:

Peterson cannot be confined to the stadium, using his spare time to develop a baseball-specific laptop computer and a software program that computes data on every hitter. Peterson tells his pitchers what a given hitter is batting against 1-2 changeups on the inside corner of the plate, and what they should throw as a result.

"There's a reason why we have the best pitching staff in baseball," said Tom Glavine, who is making a bid for comeback player of the year.

It's impossible to overstate the importance of Michael Lewis' book "Moneyball" on sports journalism. It has presented baseball with an entirely new story line. That's an impressive feat for a journalist to have pulled off. As Lewis said, he fell in love with the story of guys using brains and bits and bytes to gain a competitive edge. It's a great story, and it's continuing to pay journlistic and narrative dividends.

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June 03, 2004

We Can Rebuild Him...

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Posted by Nick

Like all normal redblooded American males coming of age in the 1970s and early 80s, I was a huge fan of The Six Million Dollar Man.

"We can rebuild him. We have the technology. We have the capability to make the world's first Bionic man. Steve Austin will be that man. Better than he was before. Better . . . stronger . . . faster."

I, like my other male compatriots, loved the Bionic Man in part because we REALLY loved the Bionic Woman. But that's not important right now.

Wired reports that baseball teams are figuring out how to, in a way, rebuild their pitchers to make them more effective.

Fleisig is the research director at the American Sports Medicine Institute in Birmingham, Alabama, dedicated to improving athletic performance and preventing sports-related injuries. He is also fast becoming the biomechanist to the stars. Every winter, major-league pitchers head to ASMI in droves to be picked apart by the unblinking eyes of the lab's 500-frames-per-second high-speed cameras and infrared, 3-D optical motion-capture system. It's all about finding that little something extra that could mean the difference between playing in the next World Series and watching it on TV.

Pitching, it's often said, is 90 percent of the game. By identifying a mechanically unsound motion in his delivery, a pitcher can add several miles an hour to his fastball or put more snap on his slider - and increase his team's chances of winning more games. So, why trust something so important to the human eye? "My motto is, 'In God we trust; all others must have data,'" says Rick Peterson, the pitching coach for the New York Mets. In February, he brought all of the Mets pitching prospects to Birmingham for a preseason tune-up.

Sounds like the Moneyball revolution: "In God we trust; all others must have data." When watching PGA events on TV the commentators always discuss how players -- typically Tiger Woods -- spend time breaking down and then rebuilding their swings. I'm not sure if golfers spend time at ASMI, but if it works for a pitcher's delivery, one would imagine it would work for a golf swing, a tennis serve, a slapshot...

On a side note, doesn't the Six Million Dollar Man sounds like something Dr. Evil would come up with in "Austin Powers"? One meeeeeelion dollars. Six large is chump change in professional sports these days.

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June 02, 2004

Byte Sox

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Posted by Nick

The White Sox are the latest in a series of teams adopting IT whole hog. They use it in the Moneyball/analyze players sort of way, but also to improve fan experience.

Baseball more than any other sport could benefit from harnessing technology for the fan. Imagine if every four seats or so there was a small screen attached to the railing in front of you or on the back of a seat in front that looked like a GPS screen in an automobile but that gave the fan oodles of stats about the players (not just batting avg/HR/RBI like they post on the screen but batting avg. against lefties, batting avg. against this specific pitcher, high school and college highlights, etc.) and teams (how many times have they matched up, what happend in past games, etc). This would be real value added to the fan's experience.

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April 22, 2004

DC and the Extortion Game

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Posted by Nick

Great stuff from Sabernomics and Off Wing Opinion on the to-ing and fro-ing over a baseball team for DC. OWO thinks DC is more valuable as an extortion tool for MLB.

Washington is simply more valuable to MLB without a team, as a bargaining chip to blackmail other cities into paying for publicly funded stadiums, than it is as a home for the wayward Montreal Expos.

It's an insightful point. Sabernomics crunches some numbers to see if OWO's argument holds water.

I'd only point out that if MLB was using DC as an extortion chit, it would be extremely unwise. Of all the cities with which to play this game, DC is an imprudent choice. Members of Congress would like nothing more than a baseball franchise at the end of East Capitol Street or just up North Capitol Street where they can go to be seen on camera by their hometown TV stations. Baltimore's just 45 minutes up the road but it's not as fundraiser friendly. Never underestimate the desire of lawmakers to rig conditions for their own benefit. It explains the DC taxicab zoning system.

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April 15, 2004

BaseBlogging: The National Wastetime

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Posted by Nick

Check out the best in BaseBlogs compiled by Slate. Good stuff here, including linky goodness to a lot of my favorites.

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March 17, 2004

Aluminum Bats and Bodies

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Posted by Nick

Eric at Off Wing Opinion -- which is one of the best sports blogs, and don't just take my word for it, Forbes said so -- writes in to say about steroids:

"I think of their effect in baseball to be akin to using an aluminum bat..."

This is a good point. Aluminum bats are banned. Why not ban steroids, too? I'm sympathetic to this argument and I have no real problem with the steroids ban. I just happen to think the only way it's going to work is if the players' union gets serious about it. Enforcement efforts coming from management or league officials will be unlikely to work effectively. It has to start with the players (I've addressed some of the reasons for this here and here).

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March 16, 2004

Bill James, Too Abstract

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Posted by Nick

Here's an interesting interview with Bill James. What struck me most was this comment from James:

"When you're in a position where you HAVE to overspend for a player--you HAVE to pay more for a player than he really is worth--how do you know when to stop? It's a very serious question for every baseball team, and I have a way of deriving an answer. Theo needs an answer, and ownership needs an explanation. Theo doesn't HAVE to buy my answer, and ownership doesn't have to buy my explanation. Theo is free to ignore my calculations; ownership is free to reject my approach. But. . .they need an answer; I have an answer."

What is his answer? The interview doesn't say, but wouldn't the Jamesian answer be you know when to stop when you reach the price the player is worth? If not, why not?

Meanwhile, Dan Drezner discusses why Bill James is not an economist.

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February 27, 2004

Money Is the Root of All Good

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Posted by Nick

The invaluable David Pinto at Baseball Musings has a terrific post with a link to a great Balto Sun story about the Orioles' use of psychological testing in evaluating players. The O's believe they've "cracked the code" in determining the psychological characteristics that, when combined with talent, will yield great performance (I wonder how Albert Belle did on the tests).

Dave Ritterpusch is the Orioles' director of baseball information systems -- a job I'm pretty certain did not exist all that long ago -- and he developed the system. According to the Sun, "Ritterpusch startlingly contends drive is less important than several other qualities. 'The old cliche about 'the guy who wants it the most will get it' - it's a myth,' he said"

Former O's pitcher Mike Flanagan, one of the smartest guys in baseball, is pushing this effort with owner Peter Angelos' blessing. But the O's aren't about the let someone come in and reveal their trade secrets like Michael Lewis of "Moneyball" fame did with the Oakland A's and their use of Bill Jamesian sabermetrics. "It took 30 years to compile this, and we're not going to give it away," Flanagan said.

I think it's worth pointing out that, for all the folks who decry the high salaries and bonuses professional athletes earn, we most likely wouldn't have had the innovative use of science, technology, data crunching and evaluation in sports in recent years were it not for these salaries. Owners and GMs tired of seeing prospects get paid handsomely to go bust needed better tools to determine how to spend money. With the huge sums being spent on players, the incentive was there to try to find new ways of building better ball clubs.

That's the chief reason I think Aaron Schatz's much-discussed and excellent New Republic piece on big bucks in baseball is a little short-sighted. Schatz says that the "mainstreaming of sabermetric techniques" means the Yankees and Dodgers and other big market teams will now be able to tap into an innovative technique/technology like sabermetrics and catch up with the A's and other teams already using these methods; and then, since the big market clubs still have all the money, they'll be able to gobble up the best -- and more efficiently evaluated -- players. But as Flanagan and the O's are demonstrating, applied and useful knowledge is potentially limitless, and so teams can always be looking for something new to gain a competitive edge. Most importantly, with huge bucks on the line, they will continue to do so.

This is not an argument against salary caps or revenue sharing. It's just that the seemingly obscene dollars in baseball and other sports yield interesting developments that are perhaps not suffieintly appreciated if we can't look past the dollar signs.

(Lastly, all of this raises some interesting questions about the possible future use of mood- and personality-altering drugs and sports. Physical enhancements are, for the time being, largely verboten. But what about when psycho-chemists figure out how to monkey with brain chemistry enough to tweak a player's head to get him to perform at a more optimal level? Will this be permitted?)

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The Statistical Significance of the Four Seasons

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Posted by Nick

There's an important discussion over at OldFishinghat about Billy Beane and sabermetrics. I only recently read "Moneyball" and it's a tremendous book. But having read "Liar's Poker" and "Trail Fever" and "The New New Thing" I wouldn't expect anything less from Michael Lewis. He is today's truly outstanding creative non-fiction writer. As he says at the beginning of the book, "I fell in love with a story." He makes his readers fall in love with the story, too.

But I kept thinking throughout the book that the A's recent success, particularly the last four seasons, while impressive, was statistically irrelevant. We're watching the revolution in sabermetrics and harnessing data and computing power to understand 'the game within the game' unfold before our eyes. But it will take some time to know just how powerful this new tool is. Paul DePodesta would surely understand, four seasons is too small a statistical sample.

Update: Lewis has a piece in the new SI and Jon Weisman does a nice job of parsing it. I've been getting Bill James books for Christmas since I was a kid, so Weisman is right that this was hardly uncommon knowledge to people who'd been reading James for years.

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February 17, 2004

Beane Ball Meets Bean Ball

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Posted by Nick

Check out this fascinating graph over at Oldfishinghat: Why Are Pitchers Hitting More Batters?

What's the history here? We moved away from the deadball era and hit batsmen went up? What happened in the middle? Didn't baseball monkey with the mound? How do we unpack the role played by the DH? Any theories?

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February 10, 2004

From the Desktop to the Ballpark

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Posted by Nick

Corante's Dana Blankenhorn points to this CNet story on Major League Baseball playing hardball with Web portals, trying to get big bucks upfront for broadcast rights.

Dana writes:

Baseball is trying to treat streaming media players, like Real and Microsoft, the way it treats the broadcast networks. Sports leagues have long pushed broadcasters into taking losses on those rights, figuring that they capture key demographics (men 18-34), which they can then push into watching other shows on the same networks.

This is not the way the Internet works. The Internet is not publishing, and it's not broadcasting. The survivors in the Internet business have finally learned this, even those which, like Real, began life expecting it to recapitulate broadcast.

Dana may or may not be right, although I'd argue the Internet certainly IS publishing and to a lesser extent broadcasting in some sense. But either way, baseball has a big opportunity to exploit the web in a way that other sports don't.

It goes without saying that baseball has alienated millions of fans in myriad ways, but I'd argue a chief source of alienation is how few day games there are these days, particularly during the playoffs and World Series. Trying to build a fan base without being mindful of the time of day when kids want to and are able to watch is foolish. But as baseball has catered to TV for big bucks, it has made it difficult for younger fans to connect to the sport.

Because there are so many baseball games in a year, a robust offering of games online -- particularly if fans don't have to pay subscriptions to see their teams -- especially during the early to mid-afternoon when lots of workers and kids are at their computers could prove a big draw for baseball (for football, this isn't really an option).

Dana says he wouldn't watch a game on a small screen. But having a relatively unobtrusive window open in the corner of your screen while you work or while a kid does his homework would prove attractive to a lot of people.

Baseball should think of this not as a way to make bank up front, but as a way to connect with fans in a way that other sports can't. I'm not counting on the Selig braintrust to think of it that way, which is too bad -- for baseball and for fans.

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February 04, 2004

A's Post-Season Fluke

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Posted by Nick

I cannot recommend these remarks from Dominic Rivers enough:

Finally, while I'm willing to concede that the ability to play little ball has SOME increased value in the post-season (due to more lights-out pitching performances), I wish to remind everyone that the A's have gone 8-12 over the last four years in the post-season, all against VERY good teams. Some of them (including this year's Red Sox team) were in my opinion better teams to begin with. Numerous great teams go through 8-12 stretches. Heck, the A's started the 2002 season much worse than that, against much inferior competition. In other words, The A's failure to advance in the playoffs is not the vindicating force for littleball that some people think it is. It's part vindicating force, part fluke, and part explicable by the fact that one (or more) of the four teams that the A's played between 2000-2003 were better than they were.

This is a terrific point. Twenty games is not enough to base any firm conclusions. Dominic says the A's were playing better teams, and I'm inclined to agree.


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Speed Kills

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Posted by Nick

Interesting reaction from my post on Billy Ball, mostly from folks telling me I have no idea what I'm talking about (see the excellent comments here and here for more on that).

Let me be clear: the bias against speed that the A's have based on their data crunching certainly needs to be considered in context -- if they had all the money in the world, they'd take speed AND hitting, but since they don't, they prefer hitting (and several other things) over speed.

I was making a point about how the game of baseball itself changes from April to October.

Interestingly, I think baseball does this in a way that football and basketball do not, in part because they are sports with a clock. Baseball has unique mental and psychological components that change throughout the season because there is no clock.

Billy Ball is predicated on putting together a team that wins 90 to 100 games. It's not predicated on putting together a team than wins 90-100 games AND is necessarily well-positioned to go deep in the playoffs. This is my one knock against it.

My suggestion (not proven yet, but one day it may be) that speed matters more in the late season (think of the Cards and Royals in the 80s) is not just the small-ball-wins-ballgames point. It's not even really a point about the relative importance of speed (after all, the Yankees of the late 90s were not dominated by speed). It's simply that there are elements to winning playoff baseball that don't lend themselves well to statistical modeling.

UPDATE: Oldfishinghat has some great material here on Bill James.

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January 28, 2004

Baseball in the Eye of the Beholder

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Posted by Nick

Heading from NY to DC I got caught in a blizzard in Delaware. I-95 was in a complete white out. Cars just stopped... in the middle of the highway. It was odd. So the family stayed near the home of D III powerhouse University of Delaware. Go Blue Hens.

Brother Arnold over at The Bottom Line is of the opinion that,

Baseball should prevent all new technology (and even roll back some existing technology), using whatever draconian authoritarian means necessary.

Arnold is someone comfortable with dynamic processes and change, but I think his view reflects the sentiment of a lot of baseball fans.

Interestingly, though, baseball is structured in such a way that it can be turned upside down by technology more than some other sports. For example, some researchers and scientists are working on contact lenses that cut down on certain rays of light in the ultraviolet spectrum. According to some reports (and this is something I'm now looking into) hitters can wear these lenses and see the ball significantly better and markedly boost their batting averages. The lenses are not of as much use to pitchers.

Baseball has achieved something of a balance between pitchers and hitters that most fans like. For example, hardly anyone today is calling to raise the mound (besides pitchers), and hardly anyone is asking for the mound to be lowered (besides hitters).

But what happens when a technology comes along -- like these contact lenses -- that can potentially upset the traditional dynamic of the game, tilting it significantly toward, say, greater offense or tighter defense? How do we decide what to allow and what to forbid? Arnold has his response already. But what about other fans?

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