1. Dave on February 17, 2004 04:56 PM writes...

Quite obviously (to me, anyway), batters are being beaned at a higher rate because:

1. They crowd the plate more.
2. They wear body armor when doing so.
3. Pitchers have the ability to throw with velocity, but lack the pinpoint control.

The emphasis these days is in the power game (strikeouts and home runs). Thus, pitchers aren't learning mastery of control, but of "throwing the high heat", and batters aren't "hittin' it where they ain't", but are instead swinging for the fences. All of these conditions are conducive to more hit batsmen.

Just my $0.02.

Love the blog, by the way.

Dave

2. Doug Purdie on February 17, 2004 07:04 PM writes...

Bill James thinks it's because the bigger, stronger hitter swinging lighter bats faster, can now drive the outside pitch. He may be right but I'm certain bad umpiring has contributed.

I can't pinpoint when it began but Major League umpires are calling outside pitches strikes. A hitter that continually sees pitches 4 inches outside called a strike is going to complain or adjust. Since complaining hardly ever works, the hitter moves closer to the plate so he can reach those outside pitches.

Keep a look out for those overhead camera angles. 4 out of 5 bad-call strikes by the umpire are on the outside part of the plate.

3. JC on February 17, 2004 10:53 PM writes...

First, thanks for linking to this Nick. I appreciate your thoughts on the issue.

Second, the suggestions I have been hearing largely fall into 3 categories:
1) Plate crowding due to outside strikes called or bulked up hitters that can hit opposite field HRs.
2)Dilution of pitching leading to more accidental hit batters.
3) Equipment pretection for hitters (helmets and armor).

The first is virtually untestable. To get the data to examine this (say the # of opposite field HRs or called "outside" strikes) I would need some very very expensive data. I don't have $10-grand to plop down to satisfy my curiosity. So, I cannot be sure. However, the rise of HBP batters begins around 1980, which I believe predates this hitter/umpire behavior. The second, I have tested using some proxies for pitcher quality (e.g., the standard deviation of certain pitching statistics) and I can find no correlation. If anything, I find better pitching leads to more hit batters. The armor argument also does not fit the time period. In the 1960s the rise in HBP predates the helmet, and the 1980s rise predates arm and leg armor usage.

But most importantly, what is going on from rapid increase in 1960 to the decline in the 1970s and the rapid rise starting in the 1980s? This is why this puzzle is so baffling. I am certain that all of these suggestions matter somewhat, but they just don't seem to explain enough of the pattern.

Again, thanks so much for your comments. If an answer comes to you or you find my arguments to be in error, please e-mail me your thoughts.

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